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CLETE
Gold and Silver
posted Aug 22 '12 by clete
Since gold and silver both seem to be finally making a real move and since I, and hopefuly a lot of you, have new positions in these metals, I figured I would make a new thread where I can just dump any comment I make concerning either metal or their respective etfs. It makes it easier than trying to find the various threads that concentrate on specific trades.
Okay, so here it goes....
"WOW!" pretty much sums it up for both metals.
Gold actually closed above its 200 day moving average today and on good volume too. I didn't expect that and I bet hardly anyone else did either. Upside surprises usually spawn additional buying.
Silver closed up again today and did so on increased volume and so the momentum is really good. This momentum should be enough to carry it up to at least the long term moving averages if not all the way to the trend line before slowing down and taking a breather.
I have to tell you that I'm intentionally trying to be conservative here. I've edited out a lot from this post because I don't want to speculate too much but the gold closing so strongly above its 200 day moving average, trading right through it like it wasn't even there has me more than a little surprised. The fact is, I don't have any idea where the metals are going next. It could be that the whole metals trading world has been sitting around waiting for months for a break out and now they're all going to just pile in all at once and send both gold and metal straight through the roof. I actually hope that DOESN'T happen. The last thing I want is a super spikey volatile trade cycle. A nice patient orderly move higher is what we want. No manic freak outs, please. But the point is, its possible, so seat belts should be fastened, just in case.
Clete

CLETE
Re: Gold & Silver
posted Aug 23 '12 by clete
Another huge move again today on giant volume.
As I said yesterday, I really haven't any idea where the metals are going now because they're both just crashing through every line of resistance they come across.
Silver closed above it's 200 day moving average and right on top of the down trend line connecting the all time high with the Feb '12 high. That trend line is the last significant resistance between the current price and $33.
Gold should find resistance at $1700.
That's my best guess for now. As I said, I'm really hoping that these things don't go parabolic right out of the gate. We'll make much more money on an orderly restart of a phase two up trend.
Clete

CLETE
Re: Gold & Silver
posted Aug 26 '12 by clete
The dollar index is approaching its long term moving averages and its uptrend line as well. It should find support there which in turn will provide downward pressure on the metals.
Any other time I'd probably use that as an excuse to take profits. I'm not typically the type to hold anything for very long. And if I did so, this metals trade would be my best trade of the year. But I don't intend on taking profits. I said when I first bought this silver position that I'd like to still own this position a year from now and I meant it. This feels like a significant turn in the metals market and if it turns out to be so, it will become my best trade ever, not counting some blind luck I had with a AGQ call options last year.
After looking at the charts this weekend, I still like my $33 call for silver but there is also some potential resistance at about $31.25. And as for gold, it should either find resistance where it is now or up to perhaps just above $1700. It just depends on when and where the dollar finds it's support. And, of course, that's just the short term out look. Longer term, silver is going to $60+ and gold to $2000+. Maybe sooner than later.
Clete

CLETE
Great Article.....
posted Aug 27 '12 by clete
New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks

CLETE
Holy Smokes!
posted Aug 31 '12 by clete
All I can say is that I hope all of you are in silver and gold.
Gold: There might be some resistance right at or just above $1700 but really the next significant resistance should be around the 1760s
Silver: Still thinking resistance will be found near $33. After that $35.70 or so and then $40.
It would not surprise me at all to see all new highs on silver by years end but I'm not holding my breath because that's too far away. The point is simply that I'm extremely bullish on the white metal.
GDX: The miners index has yet to break its 200 day moving average or its down trend line and so while the mining sector should go up with the price of the metals, it is likely to lag behind for the next few weeks until it can break out above this major resistance. Patience is callled for on this trade.
Clete

CLETE
Dollar Bounce
posted Sep 04 '12 by clete
The dollar index (/dx on ThinkorSwim) is looking like it'll bounce off the 150 day moving average.
This will put some downward pressure on the metals.
I doubt that it'll go far though. There is a trifecta of resistance just overhead. There is the down trend line coniciding with both the 20 day moving average and some price resistance, all at about 81.87 or so. That's not far away at all but its enough that it might slow things down a bit for the metals markets which is a good thing really.
Clete

CLETE
Topping Tail?
posted Sep 06 '12 by clete
Potential topping tail on the daily gold and silver charts.
Silver touched the $33 level today and pull back. It will either hang out here for a while and work off the short term over bought condition or else it will pull back some over the next week or so. If it pulls back it could go all the way back down to the 200 day moving average where it should find exceptionally strong support. Such a pull back would be, by far, the most bullish thing that could possibly happen for the silver market.
Gold is basically the same story as silver. I'd love to see a pull back from here to the 200 day moving average so as to establish the start of a bona-fide bull run.
GDX, on the other hand, looks to have broken above resistance and if the rest of the market follows through on its appearant break out, so will the mining sector. The mining sector has been out performing the market over the last 60 days or so. I, obviously, would like to see that continue. The GDX closed above its 200 day moving average today, on above average volume. It also broke above its down trend line and closed very near the high of the day. Very bullish day for the mining sector even more so than it was for the rest of the market.
Clete

CLETE
Re: Topping Tail
posted Sep 07 '12 by clete
Well the day is young but the metals have surged again and so it looks like I was wrong about the idea of slowing down here or a retrace back to the 200 day moving average.
It's weird to be disapointed in a surge in the up direction on a position you own, but I really do think that its a lot harder to make money on things that just go straight up like this. It just generates so much volatility which makes it hard to hold your position without getting cronic heart burn and it makes it near impossible to know when and where to move your stops or to have any idea when you've reached the top.
I guess its like I said when I first bought these positions. You gotta have your seat belt on. It's going to be a roller coster ride for sure.
Clete

CLETE
Gold and Silver
posted Sep 12 '12 by clete
The silver futures put in a somewhat rare long legged, small bodied candle today.
The fact that there isn't any follow through to any selling is a pretty bullish sign. It typically means that the guys managing a lot of money are doing buying while the shorter term traders are taking profits. When the profit taking ends, the buying pressure resumes and a continuation of the uptrend ensues.
Whether that's what happening right now or not is really impossible to tell but it doesn't really matter either. I'm just enjoying the fact that I'm so far into profit on this trade that it would take an act of government to wipe it out.
Speaking of which, the Fed meeting is tomorrow I think. If they don't annouce QE3 the metal of the gold and silver bulls will be tested in a big way. If the Fed does not announce QE3 then I think we'll see a retest of the 200 day moving average on silver and a similar pull back on gold as well. If that happens and you do not buy silver, you're crazy. I'm just sayin'.
If the Fed does announce ANY form of "Easing" at all then the roof will get blown off on all the commondities but especially gold and silver.
On the GDX, the 200 day moving averave is acting as support now. It hasn't been doing so long enough to confirm a for real bull market but it does make for a low risk entry point right now. If you want to get into NUGT or some other mining ETF then buying now while using the any close below the GDX's 200 day moving average as your stop would make for an ultra low risk trade opportunity.
Clete

CLETE
To the Moon Alice!
posted Sep 13 '12 by clete
The Fed just ended all doubt that the metals are going to the moon.
On the other hand, the country's economy is going to Hell in a hand basket but I intend to get rich in the process.
What I want to know is who the heck were the poor smucks were who sold shares of SLV to all the buyers today. There can't be more than 10 silver bears left in the whole world!
Clete

CLETE
Gold and Silver
posted Sep 13 '12 by clete
Okay, so long term gold and silver are going to the moon but short term $34 should be a bit of a hurtle to get over.
I say that for a couple of reasons but the most important of which is simply that its been an area of support and resistance in the past.
Another reason is because $33.92 is the 1 year G2 line. That is, $33.92 is have way between the YTD highest high and lowest low. That line is important but it should be remembered that the 1yr G2 line changes a little every day and right now it is migrating up a little each day, which I why I say $34 - a nice round number.
Also $33.97 is a 37.5% (or 3/8ths) retracement from the June 28th low vs. the all time high. No one in the world other than those who have read about Gann lines would be looking at that line but nevertheless, the 3/8ths restace level is often a point of resistance and its coinciding with past resistance in this case and so its worth mentioning.
Now, I'm not suggesting this level will be any sort of major top but just that it should pause there for maybe a day or so. After that, $36-37 is the next stop and then $40.50 after that and it won't surprise me a bit to see new all time highs within six months, although, as I keep saying, the longer it takes to go up, the further up it will go.

Clete
P.S. Just to clarify one thing...
The $34 price referes to the price of SLV not of the silver futures price. The same is true about the silver futures but the price resistance is at $35 rather than $34.

CLETE
PIMCO On Gold - The Simple Facts
posted Oct 02 '12 by clete
Terrific (and breif) article on the priceof gold...
PIMCO On Gold - The Simple Facts

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