Login to Post New
I think this guy is right!
posted Feb 26 '11 by clete
I recently called a good buy point for Crude. I'm now calling what I think is a good sell point for crude.
I don't even think that my buy call was all that great of a call really. I got lucky with the whole Middle East situation but the reality is that, aside from some inflation and some emotional, news based speculation, there's really nothing to make the price of oil go much higher from here.
Watch the following spot on CNBC. I think he makes some excellent points for why now is not the time to be long on oil.
P.S. By the way, if I haven't mentioned it before, you guys shouls all be subscribing to The Grandich Letter! It's worth a million bucks but costs nothing!

Short Trading
posted Feb 28 '11 by harkant
Hey Clete,I finished reading Weinstein and want to short some of my positions once the market heads south the next time. In preparation for this, I put a trial order into Scottrade, slightly below 30 week MA, as a standing limit order. Scottrade does not let me do a GTC short order. Putting daily orders in is a major pain.Does Think or Swim allow you to do GTC short orders?

Short Trading
posted Feb 28 '11 by clete
I believe so. I trade within an IRA and so I don't do any direct shorting myself but I just attempted to enter a GTC short trade on the paper trading platform and it allowed me to do it without any problem.
If you want to find out for sure, shoot off an email to tradedesk@thinkorswim.com.

Buy/ Sell Oil
posted Mar 01 '11 by beastofbodmin
Something always happens to me to make me miss a breakout. Even when I see one.
I was poised to put in a buy order a little above the brekout point, then Libya blew up and I decided to step back. Seeing the huge discrepancy in the prices of Brent Crude and WTI was weird.
I agree with the "sell now" idea. That was no orderly breakout. When Saudi Arabia open the taps things should calm down. Beware though. If the Wikileak is to be believed Saudi are no longer a swing producer. Global oil production is going down. So expect more volatility in the next few years.
It will be interesting to see how Bakken plays out in the US as an oil play. No doubt it will be squandered on Happy Motoring instead of diverting energy and revenue streams into looking for replacement energy sources and paying off national debt.
It's also a natural gas resource, no? Natural gas fracking is controversial, both technically (high depletion rates that probably aren't economic at current $4 prices) and also environmentally.

Re: Oil
posted Mar 02 '11 by clete
It's too bad that the link to that video in the open post of this thread no longer takes you to the correct video. That guy has some really excellent technical reasons why being long on oil is a pretty risky play right now. He was saying that we're likely to see $60/barrel before we see $150 again.
I don't know about that. I mean it could be but it could just as easily work off the over bought status by just going sideways for a couple of months. In fact, from a trading stand point, that would be the ideal thing for it to do. If it just bounces around between $95 & $105 for six or eight weeks, that'll make it easy to detect a nice break out whether to the up side or to the down.
In the mean time, I've loaded up the truck with silver (AGQ), gold (UGL) and the miners (NUGT). I recommend that everyone do the same.

Re: Oil
posted Mar 03 '11 by beastofbodmin
Is it this one? Untested as it won't load here at work.

"... He was saying that we're likely to see $60/barrel before we see $150 again.
I don't know about that. ..."
Neither do I. But I think oil prices are going to be volatile for quite a while. Libya is worth 4million bbd light sweet which Saudi Arabia can't replace. Saudi's extra capacity is heavier and more sour. So it requires different refining processes. Refining capacity might be a problem and ther is not much spare capacity in the world. Don't forget Peak Oil. Which does not mean supply will stop overnight, but that there will be a steady supply squeeze, irrespective of what people will pay.
Right now, can the world afford to pay inflation adjusted $150/ barrel? And for how long? The $147 price peak was pretty sharp. China has > $1Tn in US debt. At $150 per barrel, that's 18.264 million bbd for one year. They can afford it. currently they use ab0ut 10 million bbd.
I read that Arabia need about $80 per barrel for it to be economic for them (this includes the "value add" of injecting oil revenue into their economies). But this is a level that starts to hurt many OECD nations because it raises the price of energy and the more developed countries don't get as much incremental utility from oil consumption. they consume a lot just to stand still, as it were.
But surely there is no reason why all oil should be priced the same? Brent Crude is anomalously high. The US gets most of its oil and gas from Mexico, S America and Canada, not the Middle East. Most Gulf Oil goes to India and China.

TRLG breakout confirmation
posted Mar 03 '11 by pawanagrawal
It seems like TRLG broke out on 2/28 with huge volume on upside. It broke above the 30WMA and the resistance of $24.00. Then, as expected, it pulled back with low volume.The 30WMA also seems to be flat - not declining. Does anyone else also see the same thing or am I not reading something right?Thx.Pawan.

posted Mar 03 '11 by clete
Be patient!
Watch the weekly chart. One weekly bar above the 40 period moving average looks great but six of them is what you want. By then the long term moving averages will be flattened out nicely and you'll almost certainly be presented with a lower risk entry point.
The price is trading within an accending channel. So while the break above the long term averages is a positive sign, there is still room for caution here because its still within that channel. Just be patient with it. You aren't going to miss out on anything by giving this a few weeks to see if this break out holds.

Login to Post New