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Have any of you ever noticed that news events that move the market seem to always be perfectly timed to coincide with the price of the index or commodity bouncing off of some trend line or support/restistance line that's been drawn on the chart for weeks or months?
This is what I figure is going to happen tomorrow....
The market (i.e. the S&P 500 or Dow) will be flat or up but not down significantly tomorrow. This is likely to be the case because the 20, 50 & 150 day moving averages are all bunched up together and should act as significant support. Therefore, the news probably won't say much at all about anything moving the major markets.
It'll be the dollar that they'll talk about tomorrow....
The dollar index ( /dx on TOS ) is likely to be down tomorrow. It looks to be forming a double top at resistance that has existed for at least three and half years. It is possible that it'll break out above the resitance in which case it'll be a big up day for the U.S. dollar but I sort of doubt that'll happen. I figure that, at best, it'll go sideways, but I actually expect that it'll retrace at least some here because it's a bit too far extended away from its moving averages (i.e. it's too over bought) to break to new multi year highs. In addition to that, the resistance line happens to also be the 4th of Gann's major lines, which is simply 25% of the distance between the highest high and the lowest low.
So, if I'm right about that, then tomorrow the news reports will be telling us that the Dollar is "paring recents gains" or else the Euro is spiking (same thing) because of some XYZ happening over in Europe.
The dollar being down is, of course, bullish for the commodities and so gold, silver and oil will likely be up and so that may also be mentioned on the news. Any time oil goes up its said to be because the outlook for the economy is improving somewhere in the world. I can't believe the number of times that OPEC has just happened to changed the crude oil production just in the nick of time for the price to bounce off some important moving average or trend line.
Now all this is not to taken to mean that I don't think that news moves the markets. It clearly does from time to time, but it seems clear to me that its the market that moves the news more often than it is the other way around. The market makes it's move and then the news people go find some story to fit the move. If the move it up, they find some peice of good news to explain it and vise versa. Once you notice that it happens that way, its sort of amuzing sometimes to hear the ignorant smucks who do the news read their copy for the day.
Well, today only undid the move from yesterday and thus put off my prediction a day or two.
Nothing has really changed, the S&P was stopped today by the 50ma and closed just above the 150ma. My expectation is that the support will hold. If it does look for good news to be reported by the media.
The dollar index took out yesterday's drop but on lighter volume and the resistance held nicely right at the Gann G4 line. Once again, my prediction has just been put off for a day or two.
Gold is at long term trend line support, silver is at important price support so my expected drop of the dollar index should coincide nicely with a pop in the metals.
Hide and watch. Whether my particular predictions come out right or wrong, the news will magically fit whatever move actually happens. My only point is that you can know with some decent amount of certainty whether the economic news is going to be good or bad based solely on the chart. The price really does tell the story.
You all realize, of course, that the only reason that the dollar hasn't bounced off the resistance as I predicted it would is precise because I predicted that it would.
I'm just sayin'.
I still think it will, by the way, its just taking its sweat time. The Dow futures touched the 200ma today, while the S&P and the Nasdaq still have a bit to go before touching their 200 and so this could be one of those situations where everthing just goes sideways long enough for all the indexies to be at the respective long term moving averages before anything makes a move in either direction.
At any rate, I should have known better than to make such an observation about the news media while attempting such a specific prediction in the first place. But leaving that aside, I believe my observation is valid and I also remain convinced that we are very near an intermediate term top on the Dollar Index and therefore a bottom on the metals and oil and that when the turn takes place, there will be an ocompanying news story to "explain" it that will have far less to do with the move that does the chart itself.
P.S. And by the way, if my prediction is wrong then billions of dollars worth of investor money will be disapointed all at once because the suport resistance I'm seeing is clear and obvious to anyone watching the charts and so the move in the oppositie direction will be significant and fast. A move that will also be explained primarily by the chart rather than whatever news story they attach to explain it.
I couldn't hardly believe it when I saw this article....
This is how a completely news-less FX move looks like under the new normal...
Grains retreat on improved weather forecastAs many of you know, I called for shorting corn last week based ENTIRELY on the chart.
How did the chart know that the weather forcast was going to be improved this week?
I've been observing this sort of behavior by the press for a long time. It's a major reason people should basically ignore the financial media. They're full of the brown crap that grasshoppers spit out of their mounths when you pick them up. As far as I'm concerned that article is simple misinformation, a flat out lie. Even if the forecast is improved it won't help the corn market and may or may not help the wheat market and yet they would have us believe that this forecast is what made people sell corn futures. Give me a break.
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